← Record · Recap · Tue, Oct 20, 2026
Week 6 receipts
We grade every call from Issue #1 against final box scores, and we don't delete the losses. The props were good. The start/sit calls were not.
3 player-prop reads: 2-1
PROP · Caleb Williams passing yards OVER 228.5
305 vs 228.5. Recorded line 228.5 Sunday morning. Books ranged from 227.5 to 234.5, and 305 clears all of them. [1][6][7]
PROP · Puka Nacua receiving yards OVER 93.5
80 vs 93.5. 6 catches, 80 yds, 59 of them on the final drive. It's a miss at any posted line (92.5–93.5). [3][8][9][10]
PROP · Bills at Raiders total OVER 53.5
63 vs 53.5. Bills 33, Raiders 30. The market move we followed paid off. [11]
5 start/sit calls: 1-4
START · QB Caleb Williams (CHI @ ATL)
16.5 PPR, QB13 (cutoff QB12). 30/36, 305 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT; 4 rushes, 3 yds. A great real-life game, but no rushing production and one passing TD left him 0.4 points behind Stafford for the last QB1 spot. [1][2]
START · QB Matthew Stafford (ARI @ LAR)
16.9 PPR, QB12. 25/33, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT in an 18-16 loss. He squeaked in at exactly QB12. [3][2]
START · RB Bijan Robinson (ATL vs CHI)
About 7.3 PPR, outside the top 24 (RB24 was 9.7). 9 carries, 61 yds; 2 catches, -8 yds; no TD. Chicago held the ball for 40:08 and Atlanta ran just 12 times. [1][4]
SIT · QB Trevor Lawrence (JAX vs HOU)
27.3 PPR, QB1. 24/41, 306 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT in a 34-31 London shootout. The 42.5 total that drove this call was blown away. That's our worst miss of the week. [5][2]
SIT · QB Michael Penix Jr. (ATL vs CHI)
23.1 PPR, QB4. 19/33, 225 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, mostly late. As we flagged Saturday, the rib injury behind this call cleared up before kickoff, and it's graded as written. [1][2]
The skip
SKIP · Tampa Bay passing props (PIT @ TB)
Not graded W/L. Skips are avoid-calls. For context, Mayfield sat, Jalon Daniels scored 11.2 PPR (QB20), and Pittsburgh won 26-19 in overtime. [2][12]
What we learned
- Low totals don't cap a QB. Both of our QB sits came from game environment (a 42.5 total and an injury). Lawrence finished QB1 and Penix QB4. Next time we'll weigh pass volume and defensive matchups more heavily before we fade a starter.
- Following the market worked on props. Two of our three prop reads sided with line or total moves, and both hit.
- Close calls count. Williams missed QB12 by 0.4 points. We grade him as a loss.
Jackpot Junky: ticket busted
- Caleb Williams passing yards OVER: HIT, 305 yds (line 228.5)
- Puka Nacua receiving yards OVER: MISS, 80 yds (line 93.5)
- BUF-LV game total OVER 53.5: HIT, 63 points
- Jaylen Warren 'big day': NO GRADE, No line was set, so it can't be graded. He scored 9.8 PPR (RB23), which isn't a big day.
One missed leg sinks the whole ticket. Jackpot Junky →
How we graded
- Scoring and source. Full-PPR fantasy points for the whole NFL week (Thursday through Monday). Weekly position finishes come from Dynatyze for QBs and AskScores for RB/WR/TE, using standard PPR with no two-point conversions. The finish source is fixed before grading.
- Thresholds. QB and TE: top 12. RB and WR: top 24. A tie at the cutoff counts as inside it.
- START wins if the player finishes inside the threshold and loses if he finishes outside it. SIT is the mirror image: it wins if the player finishes outside the threshold and loses if he finishes inside it.
- Props are graded against the line printed in the issue. If the issue said "line TBD," we grade against the consensus line recorded Sunday morning before kickoff. Exactly on the line is a push.
- Inactive or did not play: void, not counted. Skips are avoid-calls. We log them with context but never count them as wins or losses.
- Correction (Oct 20): the old wording on the Record page ("top-24 QB/RB/WR (top-12 QB/TE)") was ambiguous for quarterbacks. We grade QBs at top 12, the stricter reading. That costs us one win this week: Caleb Williams finished QB13.
FAQ
What was The Edge Sheet's Week 6 record?
Player props 2-1, start/sit 1-4, overall 3-5. The skip isn't graded.
How are start/sit calls graded?
QB and TE starts need a top-12 full-PPR finish, and RB and WR starts need top-24. Sits win when the player finishes outside those marks. See the methodology page.
Sources
- NFLMeta: Bears at Falcons box score (final player stats)
- Dynatyze: Week 6 QB finishes (PPR, full week)
- StatMuse: Cardinals 18, Rams 16 box score
- AskScores: Week 6 PPR leaders by position
- The Football Database: Texans 34, Jaguars 31 box score
- Nuvela: Caleb Williams Week 6 props (pregame line)
- EVAnalytics: Caleb Williams passing yards prop, Week 6 (line history)
- TheRams.com: Postgame, Rams fall to Cardinals 18-16
- EVAnalytics: Puka Nacua receiving yards prop, Week 6 (opened 93.5)
- Xaslarbet: Puka Nacua Week 6 props (93.5, actual 80)
- X story: Bills edge Raiders 33-30
- X story: Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 (OT)
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